Short Term Visa Data

height = 500
cb_palette = {
  let cb_palette = {
  Africa: "#228833",
  Americas: "#CCBB44",
  Asia: "#4477AA",
  Europe: "#EE6677",
  Oceania: "#AA3377",
  }
  return cb_palette
}

1 Schengen Visa Rejection Rate

(By country in which the visa application was lodged)

1.1 Year 2022

Scatterplot(country_level_2022,
  {
    x: d => d.gdp_per_capita,
    y: d => d.ratio_rejected,
    area: d => d.tot_request,
    fill: d => d.consulate_country_continent,
    id: d => d.consulate_country_code,
    label: d => d.consulate_country,
    fitted: d => d.fitted,
    fillPalette: cb_palette,
    width: width,
    height: height,
    voronoiShow: false,
    year: 2022,
  }
)

1.2 Year 2023

Scatterplot(country_level_2023,
  {
    x: d => d.gdp_per_capita,
    y: d => d.ratio_rejected,
    area: d => d.tot_request,
    fill: d => d.consulate_country_continent,
    id: d => d.consulate_country_code,
    label: d => d.consulate_country,
    fitted: d => d.fitted,
    fillPalette: cb_palette,
    width: width,
    height: height,
    voronoiShow: false,
    year: 2023
  }
)

1.3 Year 2024

Scatterplot(country_level_2024,
  {
    x: d => d.gdp_per_capita,
    y: d => d.ratio_rejected,
    area: d => d.tot_request,
    fill: d => d.consulate_country_continent,
    id: d => d.consulate_country_code,
    label: d => d.consulate_country,
    fitted: d => d.fitted,
    fillPalette: cb_palette,
    width: width,
    height: height,
    voronoiShow: false,
    year: 2024
  }
)

1.4 Data Sources

Data on short-term visa applications and rejection rate are released publicly by the Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission, and are available on their website.

Data on GDP per capita are estimated and made available by the World Bank, on their website. We have used the “GDP per capita, at purchasing power parity (current international $)” indicator as a basic measurement indicating average wealth per nation. Data Analysis

1.5 Data Analysis

We have used ISO3166 alpha-3-codes to merge the data in the two datasets, relying on the R package countrycode to convert country names into country codes when needed.

The regression line uses a binomial generalised linear model to estimate conservatively how much we can expect the application rejection rate to increase when the GDP per capita of the originating country decreases.

African countries are often outliers, with rejection rates well above what is expected by the regression line.

2 UK Visitor Visa Rejection Rate by Nationality

2.1 Year Ending March 2023

2.2 Year Ending December 2023

2.3 Year Ending December 2024

3 Access to the Data

The dataset utilised for the analysis of short-term visa regimes is available here. It includes rejection rates and the associated costs of rejections for both Schengen and UK visa applications. When referencing this analysis, please acknowledge Marta Foresti - Founder, LAGO Collective & Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI, Otho Mantegazza - Research Scientist, Data Analyst and Verdiana Pasqualini - Data Analyst.

The original data is sourced from:

• Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission (Schengen)
• UK Home Office (UK)

4 The Value of the Visa Application Fee

With this analysis, we use existing data from Our World in Data to show how much $100 means in different countries, measured in days of income or groceries, when applying for a short-term visa to Europe (EU + UK). $100 is approximately the value of a visa application fee in 2024, (UK visa fee is £115 and Schengen visa fee is €90) used to highlight the real-life impact the same amount of money can have, depending on where you live.

The measurement of groceries: from the dataset "Food expenditure per person" we calculated how many "days of food" one can buy with 100$. Data is sourced from here.

About the dataset: average food expenditure per person, which only includes food bought for consumption at home. Out-of-home food purchases, alcohol, and tobacco are not included. This data is expressed in US dollars per person. It is not adjusted for inflation or for differences in living costs between countries.

The measurement of income: from the dataset "Mean income or consumption per day" we estimated how many income days it takes to reach 100$. Data is sourced from here.

About the dataset: The data is measured in international-$ at 2017 prices. This adjusts for inflation and for differences in living costs between countries. The data relates to income measured after taxes and benefits, or to consumption, per capita. Per capita means that the income of each household is attributed equally to each member of the household (including children). Non-market sources of income, including food grown by subsistence farmers for their own consumption, are taken into account.

The original data is sourced from:

• Our World In Data